So it seems as though the Bush family has purchased 100,000 acres of land in Paraguay, and the US military has become increasingly active there. Just for fun, I typed “Paraguay post peak oil” into Google and found This interesting article about Paraguay. You’ll note the name of the site - peakoildebunked.blogspot.com. Kinda scary that an article like that comes from the mouths of peak-oiler debunkers. It’s like they’re not even trying anymore. But, of real interest about Paraguay are the facts of its extreme energy independence (exports 95% of the electrical energy it creates from its Itaipu Dam) and its abundance of water. Water supply is a real problem for the world, though it seems strange to think of the world as “running out of water”. It takes more and more energy to retrieve what clean water remains, or to pump it over huge distances to where it is scarce, or to desalinize it (and then pump it…). When oil production peaks and starts declining, the cost of water will rise too, and living somewhere with plentiful local water resources could mean the difference between life and death.
So, it’s interesting the rumors that the Bush family has purchased so much land in Paraguay, which seems to have a reasonably secure energy and water-filled future. A lot of the behavior of this administration makes a scary kind of sense if one takes an extreme doomer view of the peak oil issue. If one has the power to become president and run the American military, and one has information that leads one to believe that oil production is about to drop off a cliff, leaving millions, perhaps billions of people world-wide unable to feed themselves (so much food production is based on oil, both to transport and to fertilize), and if one were ruthless enough to decide to do what it takes to save one’s own family, no matter the cost to others, than the behavior of Cheney and Bush starts to make a lot of sense. Congress disapproves? Laws seem to suggest what they want to do is illegal? So what? Do it anyway. Lie as much as is necessary. Ignore public opinion. None of that matters - we’re talking survival here. Congress can move forward with investigations all it wants, peak oil will arrive and become obvious to all long before any impeachment process could take effect - and before the next presidential elections - and when that happens, the game is up, time to take what you’ve got and skip town and leave everyone else holding an empty bag. No oil for you. Oh, no water either. Good luck!
I don’t tend to take a doomer view of things based on geology and the realities of the physical world. Yes oil production will peak and oil prices will rise to $100, $150, $200/barrel relatively quickly. But that wouldn’t destroy us (it would destroy India most likely though). There would still be oil and energy to live. We’d conserve and be poorer, but we’d live. The problem comes in the fact that we’re destroying our economic reserves by going so far into debt, and the world is filled with folks like the Bush’s and the Cheney’s who seem to have no compunctions doing anything it takes to get absolutely as much as possible for them and theirs. That means war. War for resources. And not the kind of war that will be of much benefit to you or I (lucky American citizens, protected by the worlds strongest military), because it turns out that military is not there for us. It’s there for a small group of people who already have quite a lot of money and power. So while we could survive a world of $200/barrel for oil, we may not survive a world of $200/barrel for oil, 15% inflation rate, massive debt, and a military controlled by people who would use nuclear weapons if it meant they could have a source of wealth they otherwise couldn’t.
So, the Bushie’s have a plan, and I’m mortified that they felt the need to go completely outside the borders of the US for it. After all, all of us doomers think a lot about our own plans. Personally, I think about it every single night as I’m lying in bed. The problem is, I don’t see any particularly good solutions. Good solutions require resources or skills I simply don’t have. I’m not a self-sufficient type - I can barely put up shelves in my house! I’m not rich - I have no real savings. I’m in a fair amount of debt considering my mortgage. I live in a fairly typical suburban home that’s not particularly well-suited to car-less living. Besides, there’s real questions about where to go to best ride out a peak oil storm - rural or urban? One point in favor of the rural choice is that it let’s you put money that you have now (that will likely evaporate a few years from now when the market crashes) into a physical asset that won’t go anywhere.
In addition to being unsure what to do, I have a wife who does not believe any such disaster will develop. Indeed, I don’t know anyone in my f-t-f world who thinks peak oil is a real problem that’s just around the corner. So, I am alone with these thoughts, and I can’t very easily suggest we drastically change our entire lifestyle when I’m the only one who thinks this way. What I can do, is invest in gold, and that I have done. So far, that’s gone extremely well with what limited money’s we do have saved. Other than that, I’m at a loss.
One thought did occur to me today. One of the “solutions” that many energy conservationists tout is electrified rail for public transport. I even have my own ideas about the perfect train system - I just don’t imagine actually doing it. I have neither the wealth nor the business acumen (or motivation) to do something like that. One might wonder what I do bring to the table - the answer is, not much, but that’s another issue. But, it occurred to me, that one path would be to create a company that built and operated electrified rail in your local city. I began to think about that idea - what would it take? What would it take to start a company here in Rochester that built electrified rail lines around the area and managed them? Certainly it’s far beyond what I can do, but just as an exercise, I’ll be thinking about that along with all my other more normal pessimistic thoughts.
