Off On A Tangent

Archive for September, 2007

29 Sep

Celebration Days Are Coming, yay!

The most dreaded time of the year for me is just around the corner, days to celebrate love and family and all that crap. It starts with our wedding anniversary, followed by family time at Halloween, Jaime’s B-day, Thanksgiving, Hannukah, Christmas and New Years. Then comes my birthday and then Michael’s birthday and it ends with the cherry in top: Valentine’s day. Oh, the endless, glorious, soul lifting joy to celebrate love and being loved from October to February!
I am planning that one of these celebration days will be worth living — Jaime’s second Birthday. I am looking forward to a date that has no stigma associated with it yet. A clean slate, a chance to have one good day of celebrating it well without disappointments and with all my heart towards the one I love the most. Soon family and friends will be receiving an invitation with details about a party for the most wonderful kid on this Earth!

I love you Jaime!

24 Sep

First day as Mr Mom

My first day on the homefront has gone pretty smoothly so far, minus Vivi’s panic over being late for her first day of work over the issue of how to get the cadillac’s defroster working.  The cadillac, as a car for older people, seems like an utter failure, as it is full of tiny little buttons and knobs and levers all over the place that make no sense whatsoever.  It has simply the most user-UN-friendly interface I’ve ever seen in a car.  It will take some time for Vivi to get a handle on it, I’m sure.  Meanwhile, Jaime had a good day at school, and I had a pretty easy morning.  Just a few minutes late in bringing him in, but no bid deal, and then back, home to do some programming for work.  And finished off the near-term feature requests pretty easily.  When I picked Jaime up from school, he was in a happy mood, and it is a bright beautiful day, so I took him to the playground and we played in the sunshine for about 40 minutes.  What a day!  Staying at home like this feels like a complete scam and I could almost feel guilty that meanwhile Vivi is shut indoors in some windowless office park hell, but then I remember, this all was her choice.  So I’m just going to enjoy it.

Picked up some groceries for dinner tonight, got Jaime home, and he played with his choo-choos and watched the john deere tractor video for a bit before his nap.  Now he’s napping and I am doing some laundry, did the dishes and cleaned the kitchen a bit.  Things couldn’t be easier!  Well, except the house is a disorganized cluttered mess that I really want to whip into shape, but I see there’s a big difference between doing the stuff that is simple to do, and doing stuff that is a bit of a head-scratcher.  I mean, our biggest problem is that we have too much stuff for our small house, so where do you put all the stuff that is lying around?  I’m not sure - Vivi was surely better at creating space for things than I am, but I’m determined to figure it out.  Less clutter = more space = more relaxing living, I think.

On the market front, I see the stock market has raced nearly back up to it’s all-time highs.  Oil made some strong gains and is trying to hold onto them, and gold has held at $740 - wow.  That .5% rate cut has sent everything skyward.  I’m not changing my tune about things - it was never my belief that I was calling or could call a market top, it is simply that there is bad news that has come and that will continue to come, and the downside risk to this market, IMO, outweighs the upside.  I’d still get out now while you can.  I diversified my own commodity holdings to include oil, swedish and swiss currencies, agricultural products, and natural gas.  I thought I’d bought gold too, but I seem to be mistaken there - oh well.  Maybe if there’s a sell off in it, I’ll try to buy in.

Well, I can’t avoid my duties forever!

18 Sep

Some Thoughts

Gosh, today seems like such a nice day … to get out of stocks.  The fed is likely to lower it’s fund rate today, and the market has already priced that in.  Tomorrow, or sometime in the relatively near future, reality will set in and reveal that lowering the fund rate is not going to bail out all the banks and mortgage brokers, nor all the victims of ARM resets, nor all the people currently using credit cards to keep afloat.  Doesn’t do any of them a bit of good.  What it does is make it easier to borrow short-term money, which is what got us into the fix we’re currently in.  August foreclosures were more than double what they were a year ago, and up 36% from just a month ago.  Now, foreclosures happen 3-12 months after the first default on a mortgage, so these foreclosures represent trouble that started up to a year ago.  But, as I’ve mentioned before, ARM resets are just starting to ramp up now.  It looks like foreclosures are going to continue increasing for a long time to come.  As everyone says, the real estate market is going to take years to bottom out.

Meanwhile, last week and into yesterday the UK say a 1930’s style bank run on one of their banks - Northern Rock.  Over $2 billion pounds were withdrawn by anxious depositors.  Hurricane season is still upon us, with interesting things going on in the gulf right now.  Any kind of cat 3 or more hurricane hitting the natural gas and oil rigs in the gulf will send natural gas and oil prices skyward (more so than they already have).  Everyone remembers how oil and gas prices spiked after Katrina, but how many know what happened to natural gas prices?  Normally in the $4-$7 range, it spiked to $15 after katrina!  I would take today’s DOW level of near $13,500 as a sign of really good luck and get out now while it’s still good.  Of course, I’ve been out since the Spring and mostly investing in commodities, but I have friends and family who are no doubt determined to ride it all out, that being the perennial wisdom and the “smart” thing to do.  I don’t believe though.  Today’s upward movement in the face of recent news of job layoffs, energy prices, credit crunch worries, rising foreclosures, and future ARM resets is incredibly irrational, and has all the looks of a major bull trap prior to a big bear market.  One that likely will last for many years, if not 1930’s style, then probably 1970’s stagflation style. ==

On a brighter note, Jaime has had his first week in school and it went reasonably well.  Last week, he cried for a few minutes when we dropped him off, but yesterday he walked into the classroom willingly, and, as Vivi noted when she arrived early to pick him up, he is one of the most vocal members of the class.  Not only in amount but in volume :-)  He is absolutely talking up a storm of incomprehensible but identifiably distinct words in full sentences (I suspect some are run-on sentences), and this really got a jumpstart since he started going to school.  Now, when I get home, he has a lot to tell me - I just wish I could understand it!  Vivi has no idea either, but hopefully a lot of his words will come into focus soon.  Yesterday at school he peed in the potty for the first time.  They don’t allow diapers in the school, and so all the kids are getting a crash course in potty training.  Up till yesterday, Jaime was holding it till Vivi picked him up (literally), but yesterday, he stayed the full 3 hours and apparently couldn’t hold it anymore.  Fortunately, he used the potty and apparently all was good.  Potty training may be worth the whole price of admission!

04 Sep

Enrolled in Montessori

Jaime is just about 22 months old, and today we enrolled him in the Webster Montessori School, for their 3-hour morning program.  So, how does that jive with our recent joining of Rochester’s SimplyHomeschooling group?  Like I told Vivi, in my view, “homeschooling” really means taking ultimate responsibility for the education of your children.  So, when you homeschool, you don’t expect you’ll be your child’s one and only teacher, on every subject.  You farm it out.  In fact, judging from the posts on the SimplyHomeschooling mailing lists, there’s an awful lot of farming out going on.  Some people even end up sending their kids to public school because the child asked to go.  If Jaime someday asks to go to public school, I will probably send him - though I’d prefer he wait till 11 or 12 before deciding to ask.  If he asks at 8, I’ll have a tough decision, since I think the early years are the most damaging at school.  Montessori looks like a great place for Jaime to learn some valuable skills, and also a place he’ll really enjoy.  It has been hard to get him out and meeting kids consistently, so this is, in part, to give him that outlet.  At 5 years of age, the Montessori program wants the child to stay all day.  At this point, I would have a problem with that.  All day in one single room, 5 days a week seems very restrictive to me.  They may do wonderful things, but does that make up for such a drastic curtailment of his life experiences?  I have the same complaint about all day school.  I expect at that point to need to find an alternative for Jaime, but that’s a ways down the road.  For now, we’re pretty happy about this.

At 22 months, Jaime is about 36″ tall - maybe very slightly over or under, and probably weighs around 33 lbs.  I’m starting to realize just how tall this is for his age.  He seems to be taller than most 3-year-olds, and is a head taller than any other kids his age.  Of course, he has never met Dylan, who was apparently 39 inches and 35 lbs at his 2-year birthday.  Holy Cow!  But I bet Jaime is taller in the end :-)

Jaime’s grandparents (my parents) visited for Labor Day weekend.  He had a lot of fun with Nana and Papa, and they bought him lots of toys and  books.  They bought him a new bridge for his wooden chu-chu set, plus new track pieces that we laid out for his biggest living room chu-chu display ever.   He was very excited, and went to bed complaining that he wanted to go “down” (for downstairs), and play with his “chu-chu” and “bidge” (for “bridge, which ends up sounding like “Bitch” when Jaime says it, which entertains Vivi endlessly).  When Jaime first learned that pizza was good stuff, he enthusiastically called it “puta”, which means “whore” in Spanish, though is probably a rougher word in Spanish.  Vivi enjoyed that too.  At the Y, climbinb all over the jungle gym in the adventure center, he cried “fuck!” quite clearly when he got stuck (he had just recently learned the word “stuck”).  Sometimes those words just don’t come out right, but we know what he means :-)

This morning, Jaime awoke at 5:30 and cried until 6:30 because he wanted to go downstairs and play chu-chu with his new bridge.  He only stopped when Mama got up and played with him, though we didn’t take him downstairs until after 7.  He is incredibly persistent.  Another persistence story: at Long-Acre Farms, inside the store, he saw some little tractors.  Saw one he liked and wailed when I wouldn’t buy it for him.  Fortuntely, we were just leaving, so we got in the car while he cried.  The next week, Vivi went back to the farm where Jaime plays with the goats and mazes and stuff, and immediately upon getting out of the car, began screaming “tractor, tractor!” (actual pronunciation: “trach-chure”), and wasn’t to be mollified until the same yellow tractor was in his hands and his.

We are bad, bad parents ;-)

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